New Year, Old Problems?

How do we figure out the last piece of the puzzle?

Last year turned out to be a fairly strong year for real estate (even after the doom and gloom of the "Next Great Depression"). With any good year there are still problems that exist. When we are sitting on a strong real estate market what inevitably happens is people get caught up in the dollars and feel their home is worth way more than what the market is willing to pay.

The stats for 2009 show KW had their second best year in home sales. But what do the rest of the numbers tell us? Let's have a look.

For the Waterloo Wellington area MLS sales in 2007 were 13,093 based on 19,573 listings. These means that 66.89% of the homes listed sold. 2/3 of all homes listed sold, a very strong year and a seller's market for sure. This means that as a seller you were in a stronger position than a buyer as decidedly more people were selling than not selling.

2008 showed a reverse of this seller's market. MLS sales for 2008 were 11,573 based on 20,292 listings. Less solds and more listings, not looking good. The List to Sell Ratio dropped to 57.03%. Still not a bad ratio but an adjustment of 10% year over year effects the market. This is a common occurrence after a strong market as more and more people jump in to "ride the wave" and get their piece. People see what their neighbour got and then proceed to ask more for their house (and this continues to perpetuate). As the market price pushes up buyers either become more cautious or they just can't afford the costs of ownership.

Which way did 2009 go? I still don't have the Dec numbers in but Jan-Nov show 11,325 MLS sales (sure to be above 2008) based on 18,811 listings (expected to be under 2008). So as it sits the List to Sell Ratio has increased vs. 2008 but is still well under 2007 at 60.20% (Jan - Nov).

So where does this leave us in 2010? What is the piece of the puzzle to keep a strong housing market? I believe that the increase in 2009 is directly related to the lowered mortgage rates we saw. If these rates continue through 2010 then we will see a slight increase over 2009 as the first few months of last year we were still getting our feet under us. If the rates move up with any swiftness we will see a quick spike as those approved under the lower rates will make rash buying decisions and then a stall in the market slowing sales.

All in all our 2010 looks like it should be OK. Could be worse, we could live in the US...


M